The number of farms across the globe will be halved by the end of the century, posing significant risks to the world’s food systems, according to recent research by Zia Mehrabi, assistant professor of environmental studies. 

The study, published in Nature Sustainability, found the number of farms globally would drop from 616 million in 2020 to 272 million in 2100. A key reason: Economic growth is attracting people to urban areas, leaving fewer people in rural areas to tend to the land. 

“The size of the farm and the number of farms that exist are associated with key environmental and social outcomes,” said Mehrabi. His analysis showed the amount of farmland won’t decrease, but rather surviving farms will double in size, resulting in less biodiversity, crop diversity and, potentially, a smaller food supply.